/risk-assess - Pre-Action Risk Assessment

Perform a structured risk assessment before executing potentially dangerous operations. Evaluates blast radius, reversibility, and recommends safeguards.

Usage

# Assess a specific operation
/risk-assess "Rename all hooks/ directories to H.P.005-HOOKS/"

# Assess a script
/risk-assess scripts/migrations/nomenclature-migration.py

# Assess with specific scope
/risk-assess --scope coditect-core "Update all path references"

# Quick assessment (less thorough)
/risk-assess --quick "Delete unused files"

System Prompt

EXECUTION DIRECTIVE: When the user invokes /risk-assess, you MUST:

1. Analyze the operation for potential risks
2. Calculate blast radius (files/systems affected)
3. Assess reversibility (can we undo this?)
4. Identify safeguards needed
5. Provide risk score (Low/Medium/High/Critical)
6. Recommend go/no-go with conditions

Risk Assessment Framework

Risk Categories

Category	Weight	Description
Blast Radius	30%	How many files/systems affected
Reversibility	25%	Can changes be undone
Data Loss Risk	25%	Could data be permanently lost
Complexity	10%	How complex is the operation
Precedent	10%	Have we done this safely before

Risk Levels

Level	Score	Action
Low	0-25	Proceed with standard caution
Medium	26-50	Require backup + dry-run
High	51-75	Require approval + pre-flight checklist
Critical	76-100	Block until safeguards in place

Assessment Template

## Risk Assessment: [Operation Name]

**Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
**Assessed By:** [Name]
**Risk Level:** [Low/Medium/High/Critical]
**Risk Score:** [0-100]

### Operation Description
[What is being done]

### Blast Radius Analysis
- **Files Affected:** [count]
- **Systems Affected:** [list]
- **Users Impacted:** [count/scope]

### Reversibility Assessment
- **Reversible:** Yes/No/Partial
- **Rollback Method:** [describe]
- **Rollback Time:** [estimate]

### Data Loss Risk
- **Data at Risk:** [describe]
- **Backup Status:** [exists/needed]
- **Recovery Plan:** [describe]

### Risk Factors
| Factor | Score (0-10) | Notes |
|--------|--------------|-------|
| Blast Radius | | |
| Reversibility | | |
| Data Loss | | |
| Complexity | | |
| Precedent | | |

### Safeguards Required
- [ ] Backup created
- [ ] Dry-run completed
- [ ] Rollback plan documented
- [ ] Pre-flight checklist passed
- [ ] Human approval obtained

### Recommendation
**[GO / NO-GO / CONDITIONAL GO]**

Conditions (if conditional):
1. [condition 1]
2. [condition 2]

### Lessons from Past Incidents
[Reference similar past incidents and their outcomes]

Example Assessment

## Risk Assessment: ADR-100 Nomenclature Migration

**Date:** 2026-01-22
**Assessed By:** Claude
**Risk Level:** CRITICAL
**Risk Score:** 85/100

### Operation Description
Rename framework directories (hooks/, scripts/, config/, etc.) to
track-integrated nomenclature (H.P.005-HOOKS/, H.P.004-SCRIPTS/, etc.)
and update all references.

### Blast Radius Analysis
- **Files Affected:** 500+ (Python, JSON, Markdown, Shell)
- **Systems Affected:** Claude Code hooks, context extraction, all scripts
- **Users Impacted:** All framework users

### Reversibility Assessment
- **Reversible:** Yes (via git reset)
- **Rollback Method:** git reset --hard origin/main && git clean -fd
- **Rollback Time:** 5 minutes

### Data Loss Risk
- **Data at Risk:** Session JSONL files (read-only, safe)
- **Backup Status:** NEEDED before execution
- **Recovery Plan:** Git reset + restore from backup

### Risk Factors
| Factor | Score (0-10) | Notes |
|--------|--------------|-------|
| Blast Radius | 9 | 500+ files across all components |
| Reversibility | 3 | Git history provides rollback |
| Data Loss | 2 | Session files are read-only |
| Complexity | 9 | Multi-type file changes |
| Precedent | 10 | Never done before |

**Weighted Score:** 85/100 (CRITICAL)

### Safeguards Required
- [x] Backup created
- [ ] Dry-run completed - **MISSING**
- [ ] Rollback plan documented - **MISSING**
- [ ] Pre-flight checklist passed - **MISSING**
- [ ] Human approval obtained

### Recommendation
**NO-GO**

Critical safeguards missing:
1. No dry-run mode in migration script
2. No context-aware replacement (naive str.replace)
3. No pre-flight checklist completed
4. No rollback plan documented

### Lessons from Past Incidents
This operation proceeded without assessment and caused the
ADR-100 disaster, corrupting 100+ Python files. The naive
str.replace() replaced text inside variable names.

Risk Calculation

def calculate_risk_score(factors: dict) -> int:
    """
    Calculate weighted risk score.

    Args:
        factors: Dict with keys: blast_radius, reversibility,
                 data_loss, complexity, precedent (each 0-10)

    Returns:
        Risk score 0-100
    """
    weights = {
        'blast_radius': 0.30,
        'reversibility': 0.25,
        'data_loss': 0.25,
        'complexity': 0.10,
        'precedent': 0.10,
    }

    score = sum(
        factors.get(k, 5) * w * 10
        for k, w in weights.items()
    )

    return min(100, int(score))

Integration with Other Commands

# Full safety workflow
/risk-assess "Migration operation"    # Assess risk first
/migration-preflight                   # Run pre-flight if approved
python3 script.py --dry-run           # Dry run
python3 script.py --execute           # Execute with safeguards

Related

• /migration-preflight
• migration-safety-validator.py
• Incident Retrospective

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Created: 2026-01-22 (Post ADR-100 Disaster) Author: CODITECT Core Team